Rates & Macro Dashboard | Trading Hub v2

US Treasury Yield Curve

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Yield Curve Full View

Interactive US Treasury yield curve across all maturities — 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y. Compare historical curves, spot inversions, track steepening/flattening trends.

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Key Maturities

Treasury Rates

3-Month —

2-Year —

5-Year —

10-Year —

30-Year —

Curve Spreads

2s10s Inverted

3M10Y Inverted

5s30s —

Persistent inversion of the 3M10Y spread historically precedes recession by 12–18 months with ~70% historical accuracy.

Curve Shape Signal

Inverted

Bull-flat regime. Watch for bear-steepening as a leading policy pivot signal.

Fed Watch & Rate Probability CME-Implied

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Fed Watch Dashboard

Market-implied Fed Funds rate probabilities from CME FedWatch. Tracks next 12 FOMC meetings, dot plot vs market pricing, and historical hike/cut cycles.

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Next FOMC Meeting

June 2026

Hold (525–550) —%

Cut 25bps —%

Hike 25bps —%

Easing Cycle Bets

Cuts priced in (2026) —

Terminal Rate (OIS) —

Real Fed Funds —

OIS forwards imply 2–3 cuts by year-end. Watch CPI + NFP for re-pricing catalysts.

Policy Bias

Data-Dependent

Hawkish-to-neutral. Labour market softening may accelerate the pivot timeline.

Term Premium Analysis ACM / KW Models

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Term Premium Dashboard

Adrian-Crump-Moench (ACM) and Kim-Wright model estimates of the 10Y term premium. Decompose nominal yields into expected short rates and compensation for duration risk.

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Term Premium (ACM)

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10Y ACM model estimate. Positive = investors demand extra yield for duration.

Yield Decomposition

10Y Nominal Yield —

Expected Short Rate —

Term Premium (ACM) —

Rising term premium = fiscal concerns, supply indigestion, or inflation uncertainty.

Duration Risk Signal

Elevated

Above-average term premium historically favours shorter duration positioning vs. long-end.

Inflation Breakeven Rates TIPS-Implied

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Inflation Breakeven Dashboard

TIPS-derived inflation breakevens across 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y horizons. Track 5Y5Y forward inflation swap, real yields, and commodity-driven inflation premium.

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Breakeven Rates

2Y Breakeven —

5Y Breakeven —

10Y Breakeven —

30Y Breakeven —

5Y5Y Fwd Swap —

Real Yields

10Y TIPS Real —

5Y TIPS Real —

Positive real yields historically headwind for gold and growth equities.

Inflation Regime

Anchored

Long-run expectations well-anchored near 2.4%. Watch energy and shelter components.

Credit Spreads & Risk Premium OAS vs Treasury

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Credit Spreads Dashboard

Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) OAS spreads, CDX indices, EM spread, and sector-level credit risk tracking. Historical percentile context for risk-on/off signals.

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Spread Levels (OAS)

IG Corporate —

HY Corporate —

EM Sovereign —

CDX.NA.IG —

CDX.NA.HY —

Historical Percentile

IG Pctile (5yr) —

HY Pctile (5yr) —

Tight spreads = complacency / risk-on. Wide spreads = stress / potential value.

Credit Risk Tone

Risk-On

Spreads historically tight. Elevated carry with limited cushion against a vol shock.