Full Yield Curve Dashboard
US Treasury par yield curve — all 11 tenors, inversion signals, Estrella-Mishkin recession probability, Nelson-Siegel parametric fit, real rates, and breakeven inflation. Data: Treasury.gov daily CSV + FRED DFII10 (no key required).
Fetching Treasury yield curve…
Key Spreads & Recession Signal
Negative = inverted. 3m10y is most predictive per Fed research.2s10s Spread
—bps
10Y minus 2Y. Classic slope indicator. Negative = inverted.
3m10y Spread
—bps
10Y minus 3M. FRBNY Estrella-Mishkin model input. Most predictive recession spread.
Recession Probability (2Y)
—%
Yield Curve Chart
Today vs 1M ago vs 1Y ago
Today
1M Ago
1Y Ago
Tenor Detail & Changes
All changes in basis points (1 bps = 0.01%)| Tenor | Yield % | 1D Chg (bps) | 1W Chg (bps) | 1M Chg (bps) |
|---|
Real Rates & Inflation Breakeven
FRED DFII10 (10Y TIPS). Breakeven = nominal 10Y minus real 10Y.Real Rate 10Y (TIPS)
—%
10Y TIPS constant maturity. Positive = bonds yield above inflation.
10Y Breakeven Inflation
—%
Nominal 10Y minus TIPS 10Y = market's 10Y inflation expectation.
Nelson-Siegel Fit
Diebold-Li (2006) interpretation: β0 = level, β1 = slope, β2 = curvatureβ0 Level
—
Long-run yield
β1 Slope
—
Short-end loading
β2 Curvature
—
Mid-tenor hump
λ Decay
—
Hump peak yrs
RMSE
—
Fit error (pct pts)