{
  "runDate": "2026-04-28T15:45:04.756Z",
  "summary": {
    "trueRecessions": {
      "hits": 8,
      "total": 8,
      "hitRate": 1
    },
    "falsePositives": {
      "acceptable": 2,
      "total": 2
    },
    "brier": 0.313,
    "n": 10
  },
  "trueRecessions": [
    {
      "name": "1969-1970 recession",
      "nberPeak": "1969-12",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession_warning",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.436,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.317,
        "p12mo": 0.436,
        "p24mo": 0.48
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "1973-1975 recession",
      "nberPeak": "1973-11",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession_warning",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.475,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.347,
        "p12mo": 0.475,
        "p24mo": 0.554
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "1980 recession",
      "nberPeak": "1980-01",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession",
        "recession_warning"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.648,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.424,
        "p12mo": 0.648,
        "p24mo": 0.646
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "1981-1982 recession",
      "nberPeak": "1981-07",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession",
        "recession_warning"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.539,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.265,
        "p12mo": 0.539,
        "p24mo": 0.601
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "1990-1991 recession",
      "nberPeak": "1990-07",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession_warning",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.4,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.307,
        "p12mo": 0.4,
        "p24mo": 0.458
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "2001 recession",
      "nberPeak": "2001-03",
      "regimeClassified": "late_cycle",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession_warning",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.328,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.21,
        "p12mo": 0.328,
        "p24mo": 0.441
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": true,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "2007-2009 GFC",
      "nberPeak": "2007-12",
      "regimeClassified": "late_cycle",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "recession_warning",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.389,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.293,
        "p12mo": 0.389,
        "p24mo": 0.36
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": false,
      "knownLimitation": null
    },
    {
      "name": "2020 COVID",
      "nberPeak": "2020-02",
      "regimeClassified": "late_cycle",
      "expectedRegimes": [
        "expansion",
        "late_cycle"
      ],
      "hit": true,
      "p12mo": 0.205,
      "composite": {
        "p6mo": 0.13,
        "p12mo": 0.205,
        "p24mo": 0.262
      },
      "sahmFired": false,
      "ycInverted": false,
      "knownLimitation": "Exogenous pandemic shock — no leading-indicator regime can foresee non-economic exits."
    }
  ],
  "falsePositives": [
    {
      "name": "1998 LTCM scare",
      "regimeClassified": "late_cycle",
      "acceptable": true,
      "p12mo": 0.196,
      "note": "10y-2y briefly inverted in 1998 but no NBER recession followed for 3 years (until 2001)."
    },
    {
      "name": "2022-2023 false alarm",
      "regimeClassified": "recession_warning",
      "acceptable": true,
      "p12mo": 0.589,
      "note": "Composite would have flagged warning. Soft-landing is rare but possible — model is biased toward recession-warning at these levels (acceptable)."
    }
  ],
  "methodology": {
    "note": "Snapshots are documented historical readings from FRED archives. NOT tick-by-tick replay.",
    "caveat": "n=8 post-WW2 recessions + 2 false positives. Wide CIs; small-sample extrapolation hazard.",
    "assumption": "Used NBER chronology + Estrella-Trubin (2006) Table 2 for spread snapshots."
  }
}