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CRASH FEAR
Extreme put premium. Market pricing significant drawdown risk.
Put spreads expensive. Risk-reversals: sell put, buy call (net debit/credit).
RR25d < −8%
CAUTIOUS
Elevated put skew. Hedges in demand but not panic-level.
Selling put spreads offers positive theta carry.
−8% ≤ RR25d < −4%
NEUTRAL
Balanced skew. No strong directional options bias.
Straddles / strangles reflect fair two-sided vol pricing.
−4% ≤ RR25d ≤ +2%
CALL DEMAND
Call skew elevated. Participants chasing upside.
Selling OTM call spreads or covered calls offers edge.
+2% < RR25d ≤ +5%
EUPHORIA
Inverted skew. Calls severely rich vs puts. Meme/squeeze territory.
High risk of mean-reversion. Risk-reversal: sell call, buy put.
RR25d > +5%
TERM STRUCTURE
Contango (back > front): calm regime, normal upward curve.
Backwardation (front > back): stress regime — front-month event bid.
Slope = (IV90d − IV30d) / IV30d.
Johnson 2017: inversion precedes drawdowns ~70%
Data sources: Tradier (live Greeks + delta-select) → Yahoo Finance (BSM fallback).
Skew percentile requires ≥20 Supabase IV-history rows.
[HEURISTIC] thresholds from Doran-Krieger 2010 + Pan 2002 practitioner anchors —
not Brier-validated per-asset cohort. METHODOLOGY_HASH: skew-dashboard-api-2026-06-06-v1.