Calibration
Reliability Diagram
Isotonic PAV calibration audit — (tier × horizon) cohorts · daily-edge signal path
isotonic-calibration-2026-06-05-v1
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1
Cohort Selector
Tier
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Horizon (days)
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Bins
10
15
20
Select a tier and horizon to view calibration.
2
Reliability Diagram
No cohort selected
Calibrated
Raw (est.)
Perfect
3
ECE Per Cohort
Cohort Key
Tier
Horizon
N
ECE Before
ECE After
Delta
Status
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4
Global Brier Score vs Climatological Baseline
Global Brier Score
—
Mean squared error (lower is better)
Climatological Baseline
—
Always-predict-0.5 benchmark
Brier Skill Score
—
1 − (model / baseline); higher is better
Cohorts Fitted
—
Cohorts with n ≥ 30 records
Records Used
—
Resolved ledger rows included
Generated At
—
Last cron run