Trading Hub v2 / Yield Curve / Term Premium

Term Premium Dashboard

Adrian-Crump-Moench (ACM) model decomposition of the US 10-Year Treasury yield into expected short rates and term premium. Bond vigilante signal, 1-year history, and cross-asset implications.

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10-Year Term Premium (ACM Model)

000

bps

1W change +00

1M change +00

10Y yield 0.00%

Exp. Short Rate 000 bps Risk-neutral component

1Y Avg Term Premium 000 bps 1Y range loading…

1-Year Percentile Rank 00th pctile

Compressed Low Normal Elevated High

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Bond Vigilante Indicator

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Yield Decomposition — Expected Rate vs Term Premium

Exp Rate

Term Prem

Expected Short Rate (Risk-Neutral)

Term Premium

Total 10Y Yield 000 bps 0.00%

Expected Rate 000 bps 00% of yield

Term Premium 000 bps 00% of yield

1-Year Summary Statistics

Current — bps

1Y Average — bps

1Y High — bps

1Y Low — bps

Interpretation

COMPRESSED (<0 bps): QE-era. Correlation risk elevated.
NORMAL (0–100 bps): Balanced compensation.
ELEVATED (>100 bps): Bond vigilante / fiscal risk pricing.

1-Year History — Total Yield vs Term Premium

Total 10Y Yield

Term Premium

Chart data unavailable

Asset Class Implications

Equity / Duration Narrative

Model: Adrian-Crump-Moench (2013) — Nelson-Siegel 3-factor VAR(1) decomposition. y(τ,t) = E[avg short rate over τ] + term premium(τ,t). Data: US Treasury daily par yield curve. Disclaimer: Indicative model output only — not investment advice. Bond vigilante signal = term premium >80 bps + 1W change >10 bps.