Prescience

Avg conviction —

Prescience measures how strongly the model disagrees with a coin-flip baseline (50/50). A score of 90 means the model assigns ~95% probability of an up move — near maximum conviction. A score of 0 means the model is completely agnostic. Signals are ranked by prescience strength descending; highest conviction appears first regardless of direction.

Honesty: prescience_score = |prob_up − 0.5| × 200. High prescience reflects model certainty, not accuracy — calibration performance is tracked separately on the Calibration Scoreboard. Treat strong conviction as a signal to investigate, not a guarantee of outcome.

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Strongly Bullish

—

prob_up > 60%

Neutral

—

40% ≤ prob_up ≤ 60%

Strongly Bearish

—

prob_up < 40%

Conviction spectrum — distribution of prob_up across all signals

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bearish (<40%) Neutral (40–60%) Bullish (>60%)

Signals — ranked by prescience score

#	Ticker	Prob Up	Prescience	Tier	Horizon	Conviction
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Formula: prescience_score = |prob_up − 0.5| × 200 (0 = random walk, 100 = certainty). Conviction label: Strongly Bullish >70%, Bullish >60%, Neutral 40–60%, Bearish <40%, Strongly Bearish <30%.

Source: /api/daily-edge?limit=200 — horizon h=1 predictions from the enriched forecast ledger. Methodology hash: prescience-2026-06-04-v1. Auto-refresh every 120 seconds.

Composes with: Daily Edge · Calibration · Brier Cohort