cockpit / macro / inflation-breakeven

Inflation Breakeven Tracker

TIPS-implied inflation expectations for 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y horizons — breakeven = nominal yield − real (TIPS) yield. Sources: Treasury.gov par curve + FRED DFII5/DFII10/DFII30. No API key required. Updated once per business day.

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Breakeven Inflation by Tenor

5Y Breakeven nom —

—%

1w — 1m —

Nominal (5Y) —

TIPS real (5Y) —

vs CPI —

10Y Breakeven nom —

—%

1w — 1m —

Nominal (10Y) —

TIPS real (10Y) —

vs CPI —

30Y Breakeven nom —

—%

1w — 1m —

Nominal (30Y) —

TIPS real (30Y) —

vs CPI —

5Y5Y Forward Breakeven Fed-Preferred Anchor

—%

1w — 1m —

The 5-year inflation rate 5 years from now — derived as 2 × 10Y − 5Y breakeven. The Fed monitors this metric as its preferred gauge of long-term inflation anchoring. Values persistently above 2.5% signal de-anchoring risk; below 1.5% signal deflationary expectations building in the long end.

Breakeven vs Realized CPI

10Y Breakeven

5Y Breakeven

Realized CPI YoY

2% Target

Headline CPI YoY

—

Core CPI YoY

—

10Y Real Rate (TIPS)

—

-3% -1% 0% +1% +3%

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Financial repression occurs when real rates are negative — central bank policy erodes purchasing power, historically boosting gold, real assets, and equity multiples while penalizing savers.

Reference: Reinhart & Sbrancia (2015), NBER WP 16893.

Asset Class Implications

Asset Class	Signal	Rationale

Methodology — Breakeven inflation = nominal par yield (Treasury.gov daily CSV) − TIPS real yield (FRED:DFII5/DFII10/DFII30). 5Y5Y forward: 2×10Y−5Y (linear approximation of the 5-year instantaneous forward rate). Regime thresholds: anchored 1.8–2.5%, concern >2.5%, deflation risk <1.5%. CPI YoY from FRED:CPIAUCSL/CPILFESL (monthly index levels). All data free, no API key. Cache TTL 1 hour.
Fisher (1930) "The Theory of Interest"; Reinhart & Sbrancia (2015) NBER WP 16893; FRED series DFII10 — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. · Raw JSON · Macro Regime · inflation-breakeven-2026-06-06-v1