Signal Confluence Matrix

Cross-frame agreement classifier with independence-weighting. Distinguishes genuine confluence (orthogonal evidence agreeing) from echo (correlated inputs producing apparent agreement).

Honesty contract: Convergence is informational only when sources are conditionally independent (Geman-Hwang 1983). When prescience-tier and mosaic-verdict share inputs, "agreement" is partly redundancy not corroboration. We surface independence_score = 1 − Jaccard(prescience-inputs, mosaic-inputs) on every row so you can size positions based on real signal, not echo.

Filter All Strong only Divergent only Actionable (Buy/Sell)

#	Ticker	State	Conviction	Indep (2-axis)	Prescience	Mosaic	Intraday	Indep (3-axis)	Disposition

Methodology — signal-confluence-2026-05-09-v2 + confluence-render-foresight-2026-06-02-v3

9 states: strong-confluence-buy/sell (indep ≥ 0.7) · weak-confluence-buy/sell (correlated agreement = echo) · divergent · partial-buy/sell · no-action · insufficient-data
4 conviction levels: high (strong) · moderate (weak/partial) · low (divergent) · none (no-action / insufficient)
Independence score (2-axis): Jaccard-based (Geman-Hwang 1983); 1.0 = fully orthogonal evidence; 0 = fully redundant inputs
v2 — 3-axis confluence: intraday-window short-momentum axis (deltaPct + acceleration + cohort-z + within-window-z) is genuinely orthogonal to prescience (5d GBM) AND mosaic (multi-source agreement) — adds independent information for triple-confluence per Geman-Hwang 1983 conditional independence requirement. Intraday alignment ∈ {ALIGNED, LEADING, NEUTRAL, CONTRADICTING, NO PRIMARY}. Triple independence = mean pairwise Jaccard distance across the 3 axes. Intraday data sourced from row-mounter cache (single source of truth; no redundant fetch). [DIAGNOSTIC-pending-Brier-N≥30-validation per Pre-Launch Validation T0]
Why divergence matters: Diether-Malloy-Scherbina 2002 — high-disagreement stocks underperform; convergent-bullish overperform. We surface divergence as a SIGNAL not just noise.
Prescience-tier source: 5d-horizon class-aware GBM forecast → Platt+isotonic calibration → ensemble bandit weighting (the same engine that powers Today's Edge on /now)
Mosaic-verdict source: multi-source agreement across 11 mosaic-input axes (insider tape · 13F · options flow · news tone · technical momentum · fundamentals · on-chain · macro regime · history · social · smart-money composite). The same panel that powers /security?ticker=X.
Intraday-window source: 2-hour rolling delta + acceleration + cohort-relative z-score from movers/intraday-window handler v6. Auto-hydrated by row-mounter on /confluence chip cells (same cache feeds the per-row chips AND the 3-axis classify).

Citations (inspired-by): Geman-Hwang 1983 Annals.Stat 11(2):401 (cond.indep + compounding) · Madigan-Raftery 1994 J.Am.Statist.Assoc 89:1535 (BMA) · Kish 1965 Survey Sampling §8.2 (effective N) · Diether-Malloy-Scherbina 2002 J.Finance 57:2113 (disagreement-and-returns) · Pearl 1988 Probabilistic Reasoning §3 · López de Prado 2018 Adv. Financial ML §8 (deflated metrics).