CME FedWatch-style FOMC rate probability analysis — next 8 meetings, rate path scenarios, dot plot vs market, and historical outcomes.
Probabilities derived from FRED FEDFUNDS + hawkishness-bias model.
Model-based estimates. Probabilities are derived from a statistical model anchored to FRED FEDFUNDS data, not live CME fed funds futures prices.
Use as directional context alongside official CME FedWatch Tool data. Not investment advice.
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Meeting Probabilities
Rate Path — 8-Meeting Forward Curve
Bull (aggressive cuts)
Base (probability-weighted)
Bear (fewer cuts / hikes)
All 8 Meetings — Probability Summary
Meeting
Days
Expected Rate
Most Likely
Cut 50bps
Cut 25bps
Hold
Hike 25bps
Hike 50bps
Dot Plot — Fed Median Projections vs Market Implied