Cohort Comparison

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Cohort Comparison

DISCIPLINE • Compares /my-options realized stats (personal trades) vs Wave-7 DTE cohort (synthetic backtest). Surfaces whether your actual performance BEATS or MISSES the synthetic baseline per strategy. Per Brier-Track Continuity T0.

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Methodology
Comparison metric: personal_hit_rate vs synthetic_hit_rate + personal_mean_payoff vs synthetic_mean_payoff. Personal data sourced from Wave-1.5 /api/my-options/realized-stats (your closed trades). Synthetic baseline from Wave-7 /api/dte-cohort-stats (DTE-grid backtest emit @ 14:30 UTC daily; resolve @ 14:45 UTC at expiry). Per Pre-Launch Validation T0: ratify-eligible at N≥30 per cohort.

Δ interpretation: BEAT = your performance exceeds synthetic baseline; MISS = synthetic outperforms; neutral = within ±5%. Interpret with caution at low N — confidence intervals widen significantly below N=30.