Calibration Center

Calibration Center

Track forecast accuracy, Brier scores, and prediction confidence calibration across all D82 assets and cohorts. Quantify edge, spot overconfidence, and tune your conviction sizing.

REGIME — LOADING
5 Calibration Views
D82 Asset Universe
Brier · Sharpness · Resolution
Calibration Scoreboard
Cross-model and cross-cohort ranking by Brier score, sharpness, and resolution — who is best-calibrated?
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Live Leaderboard
All Cohorts
30d Rolling Window
Top Brier Score
0.143
↑ Best in cohort
Median Brier (All)
0.218
→ Benchmark
Forecasters Ranked
47
↑ +3 this week
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Calibration Scoreboard
Full leaderboard with ranked Brier scores, reliability diagrams, and sharpness decomposition for all active forecasters and models.
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D82 Calibration
Asset-level calibration curves across the D82 universe — equity, macro, crypto, and commodities buckets.
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82 Assets
4 Asset Classes
Calibration Curves
D82 Mean Brier
0.197
↑ −0.012 vs last month
Well-Calibrated Assets
61
↑ 74% of universe
Worst Bucket
CRYPTO
↓ Brier 0.284
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D82 Calibration View
Per-asset reliability diagrams, overconfidence/underconfidence flags, and class-level breakdowns for the full D82 traded universe.
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Cohort Brier
Decomposed Brier scores by cohort — resolution, reliability, and uncertainty components across forecast vintages.
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Resolution
Reliability
Uncertainty
Resolution
0.082
↑ Higher = better edge
Reliability
0.031
↓ Lower = better calibration
Cohorts Tracked
12
→ Across 4 vintages
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Cohort Brier Decomposition
Murphy decomposition of Brier scores into resolution, reliability, and uncertainty for each cohort segment and forecast horizon.
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Your Calibration
Personal calibration dashboard — your reliability curve, confidence bins, and historical accuracy vs stated probability.
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Personal Record
Resolved Forecasts
Reliability Curve
Your Brier Score
0.161
↑ Top 18% of cohort
Forecasts Resolved
234
↑ +14 this week
Overconfidence Index
Low
↑ Well-calibrated
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Your Personal Calibration Dashboard
Your individual reliability diagram, confidence bin histograms, over/underconfidence heatmap, and trend vs benchmark over time.
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Track Record
Auditable, timestamped forecast ledger — prediction made, resolution date, outcome, and realized Brier contribution per trade.
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Immutable Ledger
Correct Calls
Incorrect Calls
Pending Resolution
Hit Rate (>60% conf)
68.4%
↑ vs 52% base rate
Total Forecasts
312
→ Since inception
Pending Resolution
78
→ Open positions
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Forecast Track Record Ledger
Full chronological log of every prediction with stated confidence, asset, horizon, resolution status, and per-forecast Brier contribution. Filterable by asset class, horizon, and outcome.
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